Manufacturing maintains growth arc

July 2, 2009

CHINESE manufacturing continued its growth momentum for the fourth straight month in June, reinforcing optimism that an economic recovery may be under way, two surveys showed yesterday.
The official Purchasing Managers Index, compiled by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing as a measure of the nation’s manufacturing activities, reached 53.2 last month following a reading of 53.1 in May and 53.5 in April.
The figure has been above 50 – the threshold denoting expansion – for four consecutive months.
In addition, the brokerage firm CLSA said yesterday its China PMI rose to 51.8 in June from 51.2 in May, the highest level since July last year and the third straight month for the index to record growth.
“After softening slightly in May, China’s official PMI improved again last month and showed sequential economic expansion. We take it as a signal that the green shoots of economic recovery have strengthened and are likely to blossom in the second half of 2009,” said Wang Qing, a Morgan Stanley economist.
“Continuity of accommodative monetary and financial conditions and follow-through in the implementation of the fiscal stimulus package should bring about robust growth in GDP in the second half of this year,” Wang said. “In addition, private investment will likely catch up, as the recovery in property sales remains strong and industrial profits recently registered significant improvement.”
Eric Fishwick, head of Economic Research at CLSA, said the PMI increases confirmed that growth was solidifying in manufacturing.
“Further improvement in export orders is a surprise, and domestic demand for manufacturing should continue to grow, as policy and the upturn in residential construction are gaining traction,” Fishwick said.
Both Wang and Fishwick expect the PMI to continue expanding in the coming months.
The production index under the official PMI strengthened to 57.1 in June from 56.9 in May, supported mainly by domestic demand, with new orders standing at 55.5 last month.
Economists said the decline in China’s exports should bottom out soon as new export orders reflected in the PMI rose to 51.4 in June, from 50.1 in May when they first entered expansionary territory.
The employment figure climbed back above 50 for the first time since last September, hitting 50.1 in June from 49.9 a month earlier, implying the country’s job-protection and creation policy is working.
China’s gross domestic product grew 6.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the weakest pace since at least 1992. Economists generally expect better performance when second-quarter results are posted later this month.
The main concern is weak external demand. China’s exports fell 26.4 percent in May from a year earlier, a record low in at least 14 years.
CHINESE manufacturing continued its growth momentum for the fourth straight month in June, reinforcing optimism that an economic recovery may be under way, two surveys showed yesterday.
The official Purchasing Managers Index, compiled by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing as a measure of the nation’s manufacturing activities, reached 53.2 last month following a reading of 53.1 in May and 53.5 in April.
The figure has been above 50 – the threshold denoting expansion – for four consecutive months.
In addition, the brokerage firm CLSA said yesterday its China PMI rose to 51.8 in June from 51.2 in May, the highest level since July last year and the third straight month for the index to record growth.
“After softening slightly in May, China’s official PMI improved again last month and showed sequential economic expansion. We take it as a signal that the green shoots of economic recovery have strengthened and are likely to blossom in the second half of 2009,” said Wang Qing, a Morgan Stanley economist.
“Continuity of accommodative monetary and financial conditions and follow-through in the implementation of the fiscal stimulus package should bring about robust growth in GDP in the second half of this year,” Wang said. “In addition, private investment will likely catch up, as the recovery in property sales remains strong and industrial profits recently registered significant improvement.”
Eric Fishwick, head of Economic Research at CLSA, said the PMI increases confirmed that growth was solidifying in manufacturing.
“Further improvement in export orders is a surprise, and domestic demand for manufacturing should continue to grow, as policy and the upturn in residential construction are gaining traction,” Fishwick said.
Both Wang and Fishwick expect the PMI to continue expanding in the coming months.
The production index under the official PMI strengthened to 57.1 in June from 56.9 in May, supported mainly by domestic demand, with new orders standing at 55.5 last month.
Economists said the decline in China’s exports should bottom out soon as new export orders reflected in the PMI rose to 51.4 in June, from 50.1 in May when they first entered expansionary territory.
The employment figure climbed back above 50 for the first time since last September, hitting 50.1 in June from 49.9 a month earlier, implying the country’s job-protection and creation policy is working.
China’s gross domestic product grew 6.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the weakest pace since at least 1992. Economists generally expect better performance when second-quarter results are posted later this month.
The main concern is weak external demand. China’s exports fell 26.4 percent in May from a year earlier, a record low in at least 14 years.
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New Development Zone to Take Shape Near Beijing

January 31, 2009

China’s port construction, steel and power giants will pour 192.9 billion yuan (28 billion U.S. dollars) for infrastructure construction in Caofeidian, an island-turned development zone in the Bohai Bay in north China, according to the city government of Tangshan, which administrates the zone.

Xinhua’s source with the government said on Wednesday that 65 billion yuan of the investment will be used for 105 infrastructure projects this year.

The 50-sq km development zone in Hebei Province is 220 km to the east of Beijing. It has been designated as a model of China’s environment-friendly industrial base.

The projects under construction this year will equip the zone with 200 million tons of port handling capacity and an initial industrial production condition for key companies, such as the Beijing Capital Iron and Steel Group’s steel plant, which moved from the capital city’s urban area to Caofeidian in 2007.

The Caofeidian industrial zone was put on China’s list of pilot areas for recyclable economy in October 2005. Chinese President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao both paid visits to the zone. They expect it to become a demonstration area for scientific development and recyclable development.

Caofeidian has been mapped to become the country’s largest steel production base by 2010. An evaluation by the country’s environmental watchdog shows the steel plant will ensure 99.5 percent of solid waste and 97.5 percent of waste water are recycled.

State-owned giants like Petro China and Huadian Power Group have also made the zone their energy base.

Caofeidian, once a small sand spit in the Bohai Bay, has extended into a land of more than 50 square km through sea fillings since 2003. The frame of a modern city is beginning to take shape here as crowds of elite technicians and industrial workers swarm to the zone.

Source: Xinhua News Agency

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China Likely to Launch Steel Product

January 30, 2009

China is likely to launch steel products futures trading this March on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with linear steel and threaded steel to be the first futures varieties, according to an insider.
The introduction of steels futures will help enterprises prevent price risks through hedging and is helpful to restructuring of the domestic steel industry.
Also, it will help change China’s passive status in international iron ore negotiations. China may gradually gain some pricing power on the international steel market.
The source also said futures products of major building materials such as linear steel and threaded steel surely would come out earlier than rice futures.

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The Steel Revitalization Plans in China

January 29, 2009

It is reported that the State Council has worked out the steel revitalization plans, which focus on controlling the whole volume, washing out the obsolete capacity and encouraging technical innovation and merger & acquisition to bail out the slumping domestic steel industry.

Mr Wang Yifang Board chairman of Hebei Steel Group said even though the released plan has not cover detailed regulations, it will provides timely help for the development of the steel enterprises in Hebei province, the largest steel production base in China. To the large-sized steel mills, the plan means low cost expansion.

As one of the largest steel complexes in China, Hebei Steel Group has enhanced its place in steel industry since it was founded, and became the national major supportive enterprise.

As per local steel assistance plan, total crude steel capacity would be controlled within 80 million tons by 2020. In order to realize the goal, the province has to concentrate the quality steel resources by promoting the progress of M&As. Most experts believe that the steel revitalization policy will lay a solid floor for the further development of Hebei steel industry.

According to the plan special funds will be allocated from the central budget to encourage technological advancement of the sector, readjustment of products mix and improvements of product quality

As one of the pillar industries in Hebei province, the steel industry contributes more than 25% of the provincial total industrial profits in recent years. However, it still lacks of competitiveness since most local produced products are primary one, with few high value-added and high-tech contained products.

The local government should draw some supportive policies in line with the steel revitalization plan to encourage the technologic innovation. Only in this way, can Hebei province form high quality vanadium and titanium, construction steel and slabs production lines with high value added products, and end the extensive develop pattern in local steel industry.

Source: China Steel net.com

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China’s economy grows 9% in 2008

January 22, 2009

CHINA’S gross domestic product (GDP) reached 30.0670 trillion yuan (US$4.4216 trillion) in 2008, up 9 percent year on year, said the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) today.

The growth was the slowest since 2001, when an annual rate of 8.3 percent was recorded, and the first time below a double-digit level since 2003.

The overall national economy maintained the good developing momentum of fast growth, stable prices, optimized structures and improved welfare, said Ma Jiantang, director of the NBS, at a press conference.

The annual growth rate for the fourth quarter dipped to 6.8 percent from 9.0 percent in the third quarter and 9.9 percent for the first three quarters, according to Ma.

“The international financial crisis is deepening and spreading, while its negative impact on domestic economy is continuing,” said Ma.

Despite the fourth-quarter slowdown, Ma said the 9-percent pace was “still a high figure”.

China’s performance was better than the average growth of 3.7 percent for the world economy last year, 1.4 percent for developed countries and 6.6 percent for developing and emerging economies, he said, citing estimates of the International Monetary Fund.

“With a 9-percent rate, China actually contributed to more than20 percent of the global economic growth in 2008,” said Ma.

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