Manufacturing maintains growth arc

July 2, 2009

CHINESE manufacturing continued its growth momentum for the fourth straight month in June, reinforcing optimism that an economic recovery may be under way, two surveys showed yesterday.
The official Purchasing Managers Index, compiled by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing as a measure of the nation’s manufacturing activities, reached 53.2 last month following a reading of 53.1 in May and 53.5 in April.
The figure has been above 50 – the threshold denoting expansion – for four consecutive months.
In addition, the brokerage firm CLSA said yesterday its China PMI rose to 51.8 in June from 51.2 in May, the highest level since July last year and the third straight month for the index to record growth.
“After softening slightly in May, China’s official PMI improved again last month and showed sequential economic expansion. We take it as a signal that the green shoots of economic recovery have strengthened and are likely to blossom in the second half of 2009,” said Wang Qing, a Morgan Stanley economist.
“Continuity of accommodative monetary and financial conditions and follow-through in the implementation of the fiscal stimulus package should bring about robust growth in GDP in the second half of this year,” Wang said. “In addition, private investment will likely catch up, as the recovery in property sales remains strong and industrial profits recently registered significant improvement.”
Eric Fishwick, head of Economic Research at CLSA, said the PMI increases confirmed that growth was solidifying in manufacturing.
“Further improvement in export orders is a surprise, and domestic demand for manufacturing should continue to grow, as policy and the upturn in residential construction are gaining traction,” Fishwick said.
Both Wang and Fishwick expect the PMI to continue expanding in the coming months.
The production index under the official PMI strengthened to 57.1 in June from 56.9 in May, supported mainly by domestic demand, with new orders standing at 55.5 last month.
Economists said the decline in China’s exports should bottom out soon as new export orders reflected in the PMI rose to 51.4 in June, from 50.1 in May when they first entered expansionary territory.
The employment figure climbed back above 50 for the first time since last September, hitting 50.1 in June from 49.9 a month earlier, implying the country’s job-protection and creation policy is working.
China’s gross domestic product grew 6.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the weakest pace since at least 1992. Economists generally expect better performance when second-quarter results are posted later this month.
The main concern is weak external demand. China’s exports fell 26.4 percent in May from a year earlier, a record low in at least 14 years.
CHINESE manufacturing continued its growth momentum for the fourth straight month in June, reinforcing optimism that an economic recovery may be under way, two surveys showed yesterday.
The official Purchasing Managers Index, compiled by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing as a measure of the nation’s manufacturing activities, reached 53.2 last month following a reading of 53.1 in May and 53.5 in April.
The figure has been above 50 – the threshold denoting expansion – for four consecutive months.
In addition, the brokerage firm CLSA said yesterday its China PMI rose to 51.8 in June from 51.2 in May, the highest level since July last year and the third straight month for the index to record growth.
“After softening slightly in May, China’s official PMI improved again last month and showed sequential economic expansion. We take it as a signal that the green shoots of economic recovery have strengthened and are likely to blossom in the second half of 2009,” said Wang Qing, a Morgan Stanley economist.
“Continuity of accommodative monetary and financial conditions and follow-through in the implementation of the fiscal stimulus package should bring about robust growth in GDP in the second half of this year,” Wang said. “In addition, private investment will likely catch up, as the recovery in property sales remains strong and industrial profits recently registered significant improvement.”
Eric Fishwick, head of Economic Research at CLSA, said the PMI increases confirmed that growth was solidifying in manufacturing.
“Further improvement in export orders is a surprise, and domestic demand for manufacturing should continue to grow, as policy and the upturn in residential construction are gaining traction,” Fishwick said.
Both Wang and Fishwick expect the PMI to continue expanding in the coming months.
The production index under the official PMI strengthened to 57.1 in June from 56.9 in May, supported mainly by domestic demand, with new orders standing at 55.5 last month.
Economists said the decline in China’s exports should bottom out soon as new export orders reflected in the PMI rose to 51.4 in June, from 50.1 in May when they first entered expansionary territory.
The employment figure climbed back above 50 for the first time since last September, hitting 50.1 in June from 49.9 a month earlier, implying the country’s job-protection and creation policy is working.
China’s gross domestic product grew 6.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the weakest pace since at least 1992. Economists generally expect better performance when second-quarter results are posted later this month.
The main concern is weak external demand. China’s exports fell 26.4 percent in May from a year earlier, a record low in at least 14 years.
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China’s Trade Numbers at January

February 18, 2009

Last week’s trade numbers from China could not have been more dismal. After declining by 2.8 per cent year on year in December, China’s exports plummeted 17.5 per cent in January, placing huge pressure on the country’s manufacturing sector. Already unemployment in China is surging.

Chinese import numbers are even more dismaying. After dropping 21.3 per cent in December, imports fell a staggering 43.1 per cent in January.

At first glance there seems to be a silver lining in the export numbers: they are not as bad as those reported by some other Asian countries. In December, for example, Taiwan’s exports fell by 42 per cent, South Korea’s by 17 per cent and Japan’s by 35 per cent, capping many months of contraction. Less developed Asian countries also performed worse than China, which suggests China may have increased its competitive edge over its trading rivals. But it is precisely this relative outperformance that indicates the severity of the adjustment yet to take place. China’s trade surplus for January was a mind-blowing $39.1bn (€31.1bn, £27.4bn), just under November’s all-time high of $40.1bn and edging out December’s $39bn for second place. In comparison, in the first half of 2008 China’s average monthly trade surplus was an already high $16.7bn. In the second half it surged to $32.9bn.

Pls read the rest of article at Financial Times

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Industrial output grows less than 2007

January 25, 2009

CHINA’S industrial output rose 12.9 percent year on year in 2008, or 5.6 percentage points less than the previous year, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday.

Output climbed 5.7 percent in December, up slightly from the 5.4-percent growth rate in November. However, the December figure was 11.7 percentage points lower than a year earlier, and it was also much lower than any of the first 10 months of 2008.

Output of state-owned enterprises and shareholding companies rose 9.1 percent and 15 percent, respectively. These figures include companies with annual sales of at least 5 million yuan (US$731,283), the point at which companies in China are classified as medium to large-scale.

Output of companies funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan rose 9.9 percent.

Heavy industrial output rose 13.2 percent, while that of light industry gained 12.3 percent.

The bureau’s data showed aggregate industrial profits hit 2.4 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of last year, up 4.9 percent compared with the same period in 2007. However, the growth rate fell a sharp 31.8 percentage points from a year earlier.

Of 39 industries surveyed, 31 reported year-on-year profit growth. The five fastest growth rates were recorded by petroleum and natural gas extraction, coal mining, transport equipment manufacturing, chemical production and metals processing.

Industrial production growth slowed along with a weakening global economy, which reduced market prices as well as domestic and foreign demand, analysts said.

“Weakening demand, especially overseas, was a major cause of China’s slowdown, as more than 30 percent of GDP comes from trade-related industries,” said Tang Min, deputy secretary of the China Development Research Foundation.

He forecast the economy would begin to improve in the second or third quarter as a national 4-trillion-yuan stimulus package took effect and boosted domestic demand for industrial products.

Ma Jiantang, the bureau’s head, called the December rebound a “positive sign” for China’s industrial production.

“The growth rate of industrial output was 0.3 percentage point higher than November. Small as it is, it’s an important change in industrial activity” and could help China’s economy to rebound, he said.

Ma said 16 of the 39 industries surveyed had shown a month-on-month rise in output growth.

A survey conducted by the bureau earlier this month showed steel, coal, ferrous metal and chemical product prices began to rebound after prolonged declines during the second half of 2008, Ma said.

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Relocation of Factories in China

January 14, 2009

Chinese factories is in process of relocation toward the second and third tier cities to cut costs and reinforce competitiveness. Here is one example for the process:

To broaden sources of income and reduce expenditure, Taiwan-based technology manufacturing group Hon Hai Precision Industry Company is planning to implement large-scale employee relocations to third-tier Chinese mainland cities that can offer preferential tax policies in addition to reducing its operating budget for 2009 by 20%.

According to reports from Taiwan local media, the company, which is the parent company of Foxconn, will reduce the number of its employees in the Shenzhen Longhua plant from 260,000 to 100,000 and will transfer its focus to inland areas such as Wuhan, Hubei province and Jincheng, Shanxi province. Edmung Ding, a spokesperson from Hon Hai, said facing the severe global economic situation, Hon Hai started to re-deploy its human resources around China two years ago.

But Ding points out that the company has no layoff plan in its Longhua plant, contrary to news from published reports. In addition, he emphasizes that the 20% budget reduction will be carried out in accordance with the actual situations of different units and will not be enforced under a unified standard.

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Qi says hard times for steel to continue

December 8, 2008

For the buyers importing steel from China or having domestic demand to Chinese suppliers must keep on suppliers. Here is the latest news from Chinese supliers:

CHINA’S steel industry has entered a hard time after seven years of rapid expansion, and a turnaround is unlikely until the second quarter of next year, according to Qi Xiangdong, deputy secretary with China Iron and Steel Association.

Slackening demand at home and overseas has hit the country’s 71 major steel makers, said Qi.

Their profit totaled 126.8 billion yuan (US$18.5 billion) during the January-October period, down 0.93 percent from a year earlier.

Forty-two large or medium-sized steel companies posted losses in October. The combined losses reached 7.8 billion yuan.

The proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy as well as the central government’s efforts to boost domestic demand and fixed asset investments would all have a positive impact on the development of the steel manufacturing industry in 2009, Qi said.

Last month, China unveiled an estimated 4-trillion-yuan stimulus package as part of its bid to offset adverse global economic conditions by boosting domestic demand.

The money is to be spent over the next two years to finance programs including low-income housing, rural infrastructure, water, electricity, transportation, the environment, technological innovation and rebuilding from several disasters, most notably the May 12 earthquake.

Although the elimination of export duties on 67 types of steel from December 1 would help cut the cost of exports, Qi expected steel exports to slump next year due to dwindling global demand.

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