Manufacturing maintains growth arc

July 2, 2009

CHINESE manufacturing continued its growth momentum for the fourth straight month in June, reinforcing optimism that an economic recovery may be under way, two surveys showed yesterday.
The official Purchasing Managers Index, compiled by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing as a measure of the nation’s manufacturing activities, reached 53.2 last month following a reading of 53.1 in May and 53.5 in April.
The figure has been above 50 – the threshold denoting expansion – for four consecutive months.
In addition, the brokerage firm CLSA said yesterday its China PMI rose to 51.8 in June from 51.2 in May, the highest level since July last year and the third straight month for the index to record growth.
“After softening slightly in May, China’s official PMI improved again last month and showed sequential economic expansion. We take it as a signal that the green shoots of economic recovery have strengthened and are likely to blossom in the second half of 2009,” said Wang Qing, a Morgan Stanley economist.
“Continuity of accommodative monetary and financial conditions and follow-through in the implementation of the fiscal stimulus package should bring about robust growth in GDP in the second half of this year,” Wang said. “In addition, private investment will likely catch up, as the recovery in property sales remains strong and industrial profits recently registered significant improvement.”
Eric Fishwick, head of Economic Research at CLSA, said the PMI increases confirmed that growth was solidifying in manufacturing.
“Further improvement in export orders is a surprise, and domestic demand for manufacturing should continue to grow, as policy and the upturn in residential construction are gaining traction,” Fishwick said.
Both Wang and Fishwick expect the PMI to continue expanding in the coming months.
The production index under the official PMI strengthened to 57.1 in June from 56.9 in May, supported mainly by domestic demand, with new orders standing at 55.5 last month.
Economists said the decline in China’s exports should bottom out soon as new export orders reflected in the PMI rose to 51.4 in June, from 50.1 in May when they first entered expansionary territory.
The employment figure climbed back above 50 for the first time since last September, hitting 50.1 in June from 49.9 a month earlier, implying the country’s job-protection and creation policy is working.
China’s gross domestic product grew 6.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the weakest pace since at least 1992. Economists generally expect better performance when second-quarter results are posted later this month.
The main concern is weak external demand. China’s exports fell 26.4 percent in May from a year earlier, a record low in at least 14 years.
CHINESE manufacturing continued its growth momentum for the fourth straight month in June, reinforcing optimism that an economic recovery may be under way, two surveys showed yesterday.
The official Purchasing Managers Index, compiled by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing as a measure of the nation’s manufacturing activities, reached 53.2 last month following a reading of 53.1 in May and 53.5 in April.
The figure has been above 50 – the threshold denoting expansion – for four consecutive months.
In addition, the brokerage firm CLSA said yesterday its China PMI rose to 51.8 in June from 51.2 in May, the highest level since July last year and the third straight month for the index to record growth.
“After softening slightly in May, China’s official PMI improved again last month and showed sequential economic expansion. We take it as a signal that the green shoots of economic recovery have strengthened and are likely to blossom in the second half of 2009,” said Wang Qing, a Morgan Stanley economist.
“Continuity of accommodative monetary and financial conditions and follow-through in the implementation of the fiscal stimulus package should bring about robust growth in GDP in the second half of this year,” Wang said. “In addition, private investment will likely catch up, as the recovery in property sales remains strong and industrial profits recently registered significant improvement.”
Eric Fishwick, head of Economic Research at CLSA, said the PMI increases confirmed that growth was solidifying in manufacturing.
“Further improvement in export orders is a surprise, and domestic demand for manufacturing should continue to grow, as policy and the upturn in residential construction are gaining traction,” Fishwick said.
Both Wang and Fishwick expect the PMI to continue expanding in the coming months.
The production index under the official PMI strengthened to 57.1 in June from 56.9 in May, supported mainly by domestic demand, with new orders standing at 55.5 last month.
Economists said the decline in China’s exports should bottom out soon as new export orders reflected in the PMI rose to 51.4 in June, from 50.1 in May when they first entered expansionary territory.
The employment figure climbed back above 50 for the first time since last September, hitting 50.1 in June from 49.9 a month earlier, implying the country’s job-protection and creation policy is working.
China’s gross domestic product grew 6.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the weakest pace since at least 1992. Economists generally expect better performance when second-quarter results are posted later this month.
The main concern is weak external demand. China’s exports fell 26.4 percent in May from a year earlier, a record low in at least 14 years.
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Hong Kong – No. 1 freest economy

February 13, 2009

Hong Kong – Hong Kong was on Tuesday ranked the world’s freest economy for the 15th consecutive year in a survey by the US think-tank the Heritage Foundation.

Singapore was again ranked second in the annual study, followed by Australia, Ireland and New Zealand. The US was ranked sixth, one place lower than last year.

At the opposite end of the survey, North Korea was ranked the world’s most restricted economy, followed by Zimbabwe, Cuba, Myanmar and Eritrea.

Hong Kong scored 90 out of 100 in the rankings, 0.3 points more than in 2008 and some 30 points above the world average of 59.5 points.

Of the 10 individual areas assessed, Hong Kong ranked first in trade freedom, investment freedom and financial freedom and was in the top 10 for business freedom, monetary freedom and property rights.

The pro-free market foundation said Hong Kong was one of the world’s leading financial centres and said its regulation of banking and financial services was transparent and efficient.

Responding to the survey, Hong Kong’s financial secretary John Tsang said: “We are determined to uphold Hong Kong as the freest economy in the world.

“We see the role of the government as that of a facilitator. We can provide a business-friendly environment where all firms can compete on a level playing field.”

A total of 179 global economies were judged on 10 criterion, including freedom from corruption and labour freedom, to decide the Heritage Foundation rankings.

Source: SAPA

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Stable pledge for the yuan

February 9, 2009

THE yuan will remain stable against the United States dollar in the near future with the Chinese government pledging to stabilize the currency.

The yuan closed slightly higher against the dollar last week at 6.8371 on Friday, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The local currency ended at 6.8380 by the end of the previous week.

“The yuan will not gain or fall on a large scale. The financial turmoil has brought much uncertainty to the market, and we will keep it at a reasonable and stable level,” said Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank.

“China’s exports are heavily affected by falling demand from foreign countries, and a depreciation of the local currency will not be any good for domestic manufacturers,” said Lian Ping, chief economist with the Bank of Communications.

Liu Dongliang, an analyst with China Merchants Bank, said: “We have seen a fairly balanced trading of the yuan after the week-long Chinese New Year holiday.”

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Impact of global financial turmoil on China seen as limited

October 5, 2008

Oct. 4 — The ongoing global financial turbulence will have a limited impact on China’s banks and financial system in the short run, according to officials and experts.

“We feel China’s financial system and its banks are, to the chaos developed in the U.S. and other parts of the world, relatively shielded from those problems,” said senior economist Louis Kuijs at the World Bank Beijing Office.

He told Xinhua one reason was that Chinese banks were less involved in the highly sophisticated financial transactions and products.

“They were lucky not to be so-called developed, because this (financial crisis) is very much a developed market crisis.”

A few Chinese lenders were subject to losses from investing in foreign assets involved in the Wall Street crisis, but the scope and scale were small and the banks had been prepared for possible risks, Liu Fushou, deputy director of the Banking Supervision Department I of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, told China Central Television (CCTV).

Chinese banks had only invested 3.7 percent of their total wealth in overseas assets that were prone to international tumult, CCTV reported. The ratio of provisions to possible losses had exceeded 110 percent at large, state owned listed lenders, 120 percent at joint stock commercial banks and 200 percent at foreign banks.

Kuijs noted most of the banks resided in China where capital control made it more difficult to move money in and out. Besides, the country’s large foreign reserves prevented the financial system from a lack of liquidity, which was troubling the strained international markets.

“At times like this, one cannot rule out anything,” he said. “But still we believe the economic development and economic fundamentals in China are such that it’s not easy to foresee a significant direct impact on the financial system.”

However, he expected an impact on China’s banks coming via the country’s real economy, as exports, investment and plans of companies would be affected by the troubled world economy and in turn increase pressure on bad loans.

Wang Xiaoguang, a Beijing-based macro-economist, said the growing risks on global markets would render a negative effect on China in the short term but provided an opportunity for the country to fuel its growth more on domestic demand than on external needs.

He urged while China, the world’s fastest expanding economy, should be more cautious of fully opening up its capital account, the government should continue its market reforms on the domestic financial industry without being intimidated.

Chinese banks had strengthened the management of their investments in overseas liquid assets and taken a more prudent strategy in foreign currency-denominated investment products since the U.S.-born financial crisis broke out, CCTV reported.

Written by Mu Xuequan in Xinhua

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