CHINESE manufacturing continued its growth momentum for the fourth straight month in June, reinforcing optimism that an economic recovery may be under way, two surveys showed yesterday.
The official Purchasing Managers Index, compiled by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing as a measure of the nation’s manufacturing activities, reached 53.2 last month following a reading of 53.1 in May and 53.5 in April.
The figure has been above 50 – the threshold denoting expansion – for four consecutive months.
In addition, the brokerage firm CLSA said yesterday its China PMI rose to 51.8 in June from 51.2 in May, the highest level since July last year and the third straight month for the index to record growth.
“After softening slightly in May, China’s official PMI improved again last month and showed sequential economic expansion. We take it as a signal that the green shoots of economic recovery have strengthened and are likely to blossom in the second half of 2009,” said Wang Qing, a Morgan Stanley economist.
“Continuity of accommodative monetary and financial conditions and follow-through in the implementation of the fiscal stimulus package should bring about robust growth in GDP in the second half of this year,” Wang said. “In addition, private investment will likely catch up, as the recovery in property sales remains strong and industrial profits recently registered significant improvement.”
Eric Fishwick, head of Economic Research at CLSA, said the PMI increases confirmed that growth was solidifying in manufacturing.
“Further improvement in export orders is a surprise, and domestic demand for manufacturing should continue to grow, as policy and the upturn in residential construction are gaining traction,” Fishwick said.
Both Wang and Fishwick expect the PMI to continue expanding in the coming months.
The production index under the official PMI strengthened to 57.1 in June from 56.9 in May, supported mainly by domestic demand, with new orders standing at 55.5 last month.
Economists said the decline in China’s exports should bottom out soon as new export orders reflected in the PMI rose to 51.4 in June, from 50.1 in May when they first entered expansionary territory.
The employment figure climbed back above 50 for the first time since last September, hitting 50.1 in June from 49.9 a month earlier, implying the country’s job-protection and creation policy is working.
China’s gross domestic product grew 6.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the weakest pace since at least 1992. Economists generally expect better performance when second-quarter results are posted later this month.
The main concern is weak external demand. China’s exports fell 26.4 percent in May from a year earlier, a record low in at least 14 years.
CHINESE manufacturing continued its growth momentum for the fourth straight month in June, reinforcing optimism that an economic recovery may be under way, two surveys showed yesterday.
The official Purchasing Managers Index, compiled by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing as a measure of the nation’s manufacturing activities, reached 53.2 last month following a reading of 53.1 in May and 53.5 in April.
The figure has been above 50 – the threshold denoting expansion – for four consecutive months.
In addition, the brokerage firm CLSA said yesterday its China PMI rose to 51.8 in June from 51.2 in May, the highest level since July last year and the third straight month for the index to record growth.
“After softening slightly in May, China’s official PMI improved again last month and showed sequential economic expansion. We take it as a signal that the green shoots of economic recovery have strengthened and are likely to blossom in the second half of 2009,” said Wang Qing, a Morgan Stanley economist.
“Continuity of accommodative monetary and financial conditions and follow-through in the implementation of the fiscal stimulus package should bring about robust growth in GDP in the second half of this year,” Wang said. “In addition, private investment will likely catch up, as the recovery in property sales remains strong and industrial profits recently registered significant improvement.”
Eric Fishwick, head of Economic Research at CLSA, said the PMI increases confirmed that growth was solidifying in manufacturing.
“Further improvement in export orders is a surprise, and domestic demand for manufacturing should continue to grow, as policy and the upturn in residential construction are gaining traction,” Fishwick said.
Both Wang and Fishwick expect the PMI to continue expanding in the coming months.
The production index under the official PMI strengthened to 57.1 in June from 56.9 in May, supported mainly by domestic demand, with new orders standing at 55.5 last month.
Economists said the decline in China’s exports should bottom out soon as new export orders reflected in the PMI rose to 51.4 in June, from 50.1 in May when they first entered expansionary territory.
The employment figure climbed back above 50 for the first time since last September, hitting 50.1 in June from 49.9 a month earlier, implying the country’s job-protection and creation policy is working.
China’s gross domestic product grew 6.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the weakest pace since at least 1992. Economists generally expect better performance when second-quarter results are posted later this month.
The main concern is weak external demand. China’s exports fell 26.4 percent in May from a year earlier, a record low in at least 14 years.
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CHINA will reduce or eliminate export taxes on nearly 100 categories of goods including some agricultural products and fertilizers starting next month in its latest move to help the country’s flagging trade sector.
The cuts are the first outright tax reductions since December 2008 and follow seven increases in export tax rebates since August.
While the policies give at least some relief to the nation’s struggling exporters, they contribute little to fixing the main problem: restoring external demand, industry analysts said.
The Ministry of Finance said yesterday that 31 types of goods such as wheat, rice and soya beans will be exempted from export taxes starting July 1.
Direct, effective
Large tax reductions will apply to another 60 categories of products, including fertilizer and chemicals. The tax on phosphate fertilizer, for instance, will be cut from 75 percent to 10 percent.
“The move, similar to the previous increases in export tax rebates, is an obvious bid to counter the falling trade,” said Xue Jun, an analyst at Changjiang Securities Co. “A tax cut is more direct and effective than rebates and enhances cash flow.”
A tax cut is immediate, while exporters have to wait to receive a tax rebate.
“The frequency of these moves illustrates that the Chinese government still attaches great importance to exports, though domestic demand is considered key to the country’s economic recovery,” Xue said.
China’s May exports fell 26.4 percent from a year earlier to US$88.8 billion, the worst drop in at least 14 years. Last month, China announced it would raise tax rebates on more than 600 types of exports, including machinery, toys, plastic products and steel. Total rebates amounted to 102.9 billion yuan (US$15.1 billion) in the first quarter, up 18.4 percent from a year earlier.
Vice Commerce Minister Zhong Shan said China will spare no effort to protect the country’s share of the global market.
“China’s trade will suffer a retreat this year and experience slow growth in the coming years,” Zhong said in an article published in the Economic Daily yesterday. “We should go all out to stabilize trade. The focal point should be to avoid losing share in the global market. It is of great importance to keep companies alive and make jobs available, which lays the foundation for the expansion of domestic demand.”
Despite falling volume, Zhong said it may be possible for China to raise its share of global trade.
He said Chinese exports last year accounted for 8.86 percent of the world’s total exports in terms of value, still below the level of export giants Germany and the United States, which each hold around 12 percent of global market share.
At a time when people are slashing spending, China should be able to benefit because the country sells more necessities than luxuries.
CHINA will reduce or eliminate export taxes on nearly 100 categories of goods including some agricultural products and fertilizers starting next month in its latest move to help the country’s flagging trade sector.
The cuts are the first outright tax reductions since December 2008 and follow seven increases in export tax rebates since August.
While the policies give at least some relief to the nation’s struggling exporters, they contribute little to fixing the main problem: restoring external demand, industry analysts said.
The Ministry of Finance said yesterday that 31 types of goods such as wheat, rice and soya beans will be exempted from export taxes starting July 1.
Direct, effective
Large tax reductions will apply to another 60 categories of products, including fertilizer and chemicals. The tax on phosphate fertilizer, for instance, will be cut from 75 percent to 10 percent.
“The move, similar to the previous increases in export tax rebates, is an obvious bid to counter the falling trade,” said Xue Jun, an analyst at Changjiang Securities Co. “A tax cut is more direct and effective than rebates and enhances cash flow.”
A tax cut is immediate, while exporters have to wait to receive a tax rebate.
“The frequency of these moves illustrates that the Chinese government still attaches great importance to exports, though domestic demand is considered key to the country’s economic recovery,” Xue said.
China’s May exports fell 26.4 percent from a year earlier to US$88.8 billion, the worst drop in at least 14 years. Last month, China announced it would raise tax rebates on more than 600 types of exports, including machinery, toys, plastic products and steel. Total rebates amounted to 102.9 billion yuan (US$15.1 billion) in the first quarter, up 18.4 percent from a year earlier.
Vice Commerce Minister Zhong Shan said China will spare no effort to protect the country’s share of the global market.
“China’s trade will suffer a retreat this year and experience slow growth in the coming years,” Zhong said in an article published in the Economic Daily yesterday. “We should go all out to stabilize trade. The focal point should be to avoid losing share in the global market. It is of great importance to keep companies alive and make jobs available, which lays the foundation for the expansion of domestic demand.”
Despite falling volume, Zhong said it may be possible for China to raise its share of global trade.
He said Chinese exports last year accounted for 8.86 percent of the world’s total exports in terms of value, still below the level of export giants Germany and the United States, which each hold around 12 percent of global market share.
At a time when people are slashing spending, China should be able to benefit because the country sells more necessities than luxuries.
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The FT story makes the following key points:
– A rapid deterioration in the ability of Chinese companies to pay their suppliers “is significantly increasing the risk of doing business in China.”
– Chinese companies are facing “a liquidity crunch” due to China’s plummeting exports. “Many of them were also unable to access bank loans to tide them over the tough times, especially if they were small to medium-sized private businesses.”
– Though Chinese banks have “ample liquidity,” they usually do not lend to small private companies.
– Many Chinese companies have turned to their suppliers for credit, “thus forcing the pain up the supply chain.”
– Chinese suppliers are extending credit now more than a year ago. This is “bad credit management.” “Now is not the time to extend credit, it is time to restrict it.” “Most Chinese suppliers, however, have never experienced such a downturn.” “A lot of these companies never had to deal with the problem of not getting paid, because sales had always been increasing,” he said, “There’s not enough financial resource, not enough management.”
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April 16 — China will further streamline approval procedures for foreign direct investment (FDI) and channel more FDI into the underdeveloped western and central parts of the country, an official from the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said on Wednesday.
The move is part of the government’s efforts to boost FDI inflow, which has been affected by the global financial crisis. China had authorized its provinces to approve FDI proposals worth up to $100 million last month.
MOFCOM spokesperson Yao Jian said the country would ensure a more convenient environment for examination and approval of FDI proposals and launch policies to spur foreign investment flow into China’s central and western regions.
“FDI is of great significance in creating jobs and stimulating the economy,” Yao said.
The ministry will also encourage investment in sectors such as hi-tech, services and environment protection, facilitate the establishment of more provincial-level economic and technological development areas, as well as mergers and acquisitions activity under the Chinese anti-monopoly law, Yao said.
MOFCOM statistics revealed that the value of FDI in March fell by 9.5 percent year-on-year, the sixth monthly drop in a row. FDI touched $8.4 billion in March, the largest ever in the past six months, but the monthly decline rate was far lower than that of the previous months; it had dropped by 32.7 percent in January and 15.8 percent in February.
In 2008, foreign investors in China, who accounted for 3 percent of the nation’s total by number, contributed 30 percent to industrial output, 55 percent to its imports and exports, and created 11 percent of urban jobs.
In the first quarter, FDI in manufacturing and services dropped by 11.5 and 31.3 percent, among which, the real estate sector saw the biggest drop, of 38.3 percent.
Customs data also showed that in March, China’s foreign trade decreased by double digits from a year earlier, the fifth monthly drop since last November.
But a positive indicator was that the contractions were getting smaller. Exports in March decreased by 17.1 percent, 0.4 and 8.6 percentage points lower than that of January and February. Moreover, exports of labor-intensive products including garments, bags, shoes and furniture were growing.
Experts have said China’s foreign trade and FDI would witness mild growth in the last quarter of this year.
“The ease-off is encouraging, but the prospects are still tough and we cannot lower vigilance,” Yao said.
With regard to foreign trade, Yao said the government would assist small and medium-sized enterprises in developing their overseas markets; offer them help in marketing, registration and branding; urge financial institutions to grant loans to the large-scale equipment providers for exports, and encourage the imports of products related to hi-tech and environment protection and primary products.
(Source: China Daily)
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THE yuan may appreciate against the United States dollar over the short term but is more likely to remain stable in the long run, analysts said.
The Chinese currency dipped slightly against the greenback last week and ended at 6.8347 last Friday, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The yuan closed at 6.8320 by the end of the previous week.
The State Council, China’s Cabinet, last Wednesday picked Shanghai and four other cities in Guangdong Province to take part in a trial to settle overseas trade in the yuan rather than US dollars in a move to stabilize the trade and to build up the yuan’s position in the international monetary system.
“The trial settlement in yuan would favor the local currency and boost its appreciation in the short and middle terms,” according to a research note by Standard Charted.
Deng Xianhong, deputy head of the State Foreign Exchange Administration, last Friday said China “will move on with the trial of using yuan in overseas trade settlement and relax the cross-border financing restrictions to shore up support from foreign exchange to the economy.”
China’s exports last month fell by a slower pace of 17.1 percent from a year earlier to US$90.29 billion, the General Administration of Customs said last Friday.
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