As Inflation Falls,Time to Support Growth
October 19, 2008
As we frequently emphasized in our posts and told our clients, Chinese government was waging a war against inflation by tightening monetary policies which widely hurts exports of China. Now with the August inflation lowered to %4.9, China rapidly moved to support growth again:
It’s time for China to boost growth  (By Wang Yanlin, Shaghai Daily Newspaper)
IN the first eight months of the year, the government’s top priority, while framing macro economic policies, was the fight against inflation. But there has been a slight shift in emphasis.
Last Monday when Vice Premier Wang Qishan delivered a speech at the 12th China International Fair for Investment and Trade in Xiamen, Fujian Province, he said the current goal of the government was to “realize a stable and relatively fast economic growth” and “put the rising inflation under control.”
This is possibly the first time that “spurring growth” has been put higher on the agenda than “curbing inflation” by a heavy-weight government official during a formal business occasion this year.
Policy makers are usually very circumspect while commenting on policy issues in public. So is Wang’s public stance an indication that top decision makers could be considering the odds of adjusting macroeconomic policies? This may well be so.
Economists and analysts have been urging the government to shift focus from taming inflation to supporting growth.
The newly released economic data show China’s gross domestic product has slowed to 10.1 percent in the second quarter, down from 10.6 percent in the first three months and 11.9 percent last year.
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, grew at 4.9 percent in August – the slowest pace in 14 months. It has been on the decline for four consecutive months and the speed at which inflation eased went beyond economists’ boldest expectations.
Industry slowing
In contrast to the softening inflationary pressure, the risk of slower economic growth is intensifying.
In August, industrial production grew 12.8 percent, the slowest since February last year.
Among the sectors which dragged down output was the automobile industry, which used to be a major growth driver. The automobile sector fell 3.3 percent last month.
Exports, another key element of overall economic expansion, rose 21.1 percent in August, cooling down from a 22.9-percent jump a month earlier.
The slower growth came despite the government increasing export tax rebates for textiles and garments – the two sectors hardest hit by yuan appreciation and weaker demand from developed markets.
China’s urban fixed-asset investment increased 27.4 percent in the first eight months, keeping a stable growth momentum. But analysts said this was mainly bolstered by the demand created by the May 12 earthquake in Sichuan Province.
On the other hand, domestic consumption looks robust. Retail sales in August jumped 23.2 percent, slightly up from the July figure which saw the fastest rise since 1996.
However, the rest of the year may see a downturn with no new strong selling points, like the housing and automobile sectors of the past, to boost growth.
All figures now seem to point in one direction °?- that the government should take concrete steps to sustain economic growth. Huang Yiping, an economist with Citigroup, said the CPI which fell below 5 percent in August could help shift the balance of policy concerns toward growth.
Sops may work
“The probability of a policy reversal may rise significantly in the coming months, as global economic conditions continue to deteriorate and domestic corporate sectors increasingly feel the impact of growth slowdown,” said Huang.
“Although the People’s Bank of China has so far maintained its bias toward tight monetary policies, it has introduced a number of measures to fine-tune trade policies as well in recent months,” he added.
The analyst said that the central bank’s steps include expansion of credit quota, slowdown of currency appreciation and increases in export tax rebates.
“This shift in policy concerns should be reinforced to keep the CPI at a healthy level,” Huang noted.
But there is a major hurdle in the way of a complete turnaround as producer prices, the factory-gate inflation measure, also keep going up.
The Producer Price Index in August soared to 10.1 percent, the highest in 12 years. Rising factory-gate costs are generally passed on to the end users, but this may in turn affect consumer prices, analysts said.
Economists suggest China should continue with its fine-tuning measures for the time being. Relaxing the credit quota, slowing down yuan appreciation and selected reduction of tax burden could go a long way to boost the economy.
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China’s inflation cools at last
October 14, 2008
Inflation rates are crucially important for China’s economy. To me, it is the most decisive indicator in shaping government policies on economy, finance, trade etc.
For example, the soaring inflation at the beginning of the year was the main reason behind the tightening monetary policy which squeezes credits for factories, makes trade policies restrictive, quickens the appreciation of chinese currency. So every company making business with China needs to follow the inflation gadget to foresee possible risks and opportunities.
China’s inflation cools at last
By Lydia Chen (Sanghai Daily)
CHINA’S inflation rate dropped to the slowest pace since June 2007 with smaller gains in food prices, a boost to policy makers working on adjusting macroeconomic policies to support the country’s economic growth.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of inflation, rose 4.9 percent in August from a year earlier, after gaining 6.3 percent in July, the National Bureau of Statistics said this morning.
Food costs, accounting for a third of the CPI basket, surged 10.3 percent year on year last month. Within the category, meat and poultry prices soared 8 percent in August.
The cost of pork, the nation’s staple meat, increased 1 percent last month from a year ago while cooking oil prices rose 22.7 percent. Vegetable prices were down 0.5 percent last month from a year ago. Grain prices gained 8 percent in the period.
The combined CPI grew 7.3 percent from January to August, the bureau said.
Consumer-price inflation has slowed for four months. February’s 8.7 percent pace was the fastest in 12 years. The central bank’s target for the year is 4.8 percent, the same as the actual rate in 2007.
But producer-price inflation advanced 10.1 percent in August after rising 10 percent in July. The August jump was the fastest pace since at least 1996, according to the bureau today.
The faster producer inflation rate may lead policy makers to introduce more balanced measures to boost growth against the risk that inflation will accelerate again.
China may adopt tax cuts, a slower pace of yuan appreciation and more easing of lending restrictions to protect jobs and avoid an economic slump as export demand falters.
China’s economy expanded 10.1 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, slowing for a fourth straight quarter, as exports cooled. Many economists said the growth may ease to 9 percent this year.
Profit growth for listed companies slumped in the first half, helping push the key stock index in the Shanghai market down nearly 60 percent so far this year. Weaker overseas demand, rising costs and a strengthening currency have put pressure on exporters of shoes, toys and clothes.
Economists expect China’s monetary policy will steadily turn more growth-friendly, given the concerns and moderating inflation.
In July, the central bank eased restrictions on how much banks can lend. It raised the 2008 loan quotas for national banks by 5 percent and for regional lenders by 10 percent, according to reports by the Goldman Sachs Group Inc, BNP Paribas SA, and the China Merchants Bank Co.
The People’s Bank of China has kept interest rates unchanged this year and hasn’t increased the reserve ratio for banks — the proportion of deposits that lenders are required to set aside — since June.
The Chinese yuan has climbed only 0.2 percent against the dollar this quarter after a 6.5 percent advance in the first half. Gains hurt exporters by making their products more expensive and less attractive in overseas markets.
The government has already cut taxes on exports of textiles and garments and encouraged more lending to small and medium-sized businesses. Officials are working on a plan for as much as 400 billion yuan (US$58 billion) in tax cuts and spending to prevent an economic slump, according to economists and reports in domestic news media.
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China’s CPI 6.3% rise in July
August 12, 2008
Aug. 12 (Xinhua) — China’s consumer price index (CPI), a measure of inflation, was up 6.3 percent in July, the National Bureau of Statistics announced on Tuesday.
The figure, compared with 7.1 percent in June and 7.7 percent in May, was broadly in line with most forecasts.
“The continuous decline of the CPI is a positive sign as it shows the government’s measures to ease inflationary pressures were effective,” said Zhang Xiaojing, an analyst with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Zhang attributed the decline to falling food prices and shrinking demand due to the economic slowdown.
Food prices, which account for more than a third of the CPI calculation, rose 14.4 percent in July, 2.9 percentage points lower than June and 6 percentage points lower than the growth for the first half.
The price of meat increased 16 percent, while that of pork rose12.1 percent. Cooking oil went up 30.8 percent, vegetables up 8.4 percent, aquatic products up 18.3 percent and grains up 8.6 percent.
In the first seven months of this year, the inflation indicator rose 7.7 percent from the same period last year: 7.4 percent for urban areas and 8.3 percent for the countryside.
The PPI for industrial products was up 10 percent in July over the same period last year, the highest since 1996, the bureau said on Monday.
The PPI rise would not immediately increase pressure on the CPI, said Zhang Liqun, a researcher with the State Council Development and Research Center.
Xu Lianzhong, an analyst from the National Development and Reform Commission, predicted that the PPI rise in August would be moderate and the CPI was expected to continue to fall in coming months.
However, some analysts believe the upside inflation risks remain strong, as producer price growth has been accelerating. Many businesses are believed to have squeezed profit margins in recent months, as the CPI has failed to reflect the surge in production costs. [Read more]
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China CPI to rise 7.2% in 2008: BOC
July 10, 2008
China’s consumer price index (CPI), the main gauge of inflation, is expected to rise 7.2 percent year on year in 2008, according to a Bank of China (BOC) report on Wednesday.
The report, released by the lender’s global financial market department, suggested the central government adopt more tightening monetary policies to further tame inflation, drain liquidity and curb excessive investment.
China had been under inflationary pressure this year as the CPI increased 7.7 percent in May from the same month last year. The figure was 8.5 percent in April, up from 8.3 percent in March and near the 12-year high of 8.7 percent in February.
The producer price index, another measure of inflation, accelerated to 8.2 percent in May after gaining 8.1 percent in April, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
The BOC predicted in an earlier report CPI in 2008 would increase 6.8 percent year on year. However, the report said “Rising prices of gasoline, coal oil and electricity will push up the previously estimated figure.”
China’s National Development and Reform Commission had raised the price of refined oil by 1,000 yuan per tonne as of June 20.
The report advised the government to raise interest rates and rein in appreciation of the yuan, the country’s currency. China was very likely to raise interest rates in the fourth quarter, it said.
The central parity rate of the yuan, or renminbi (RMB), was set at 6.8489 yuan on Thursday against the US dollar, since the country un-pegged its currency from the greenback in July 2005.
The yuan has risen more than 6.65 percent against the US dollar so far this year, in comparison with the 6.9 percent gain last year, and has broken its own record value 52 times.
“A slower appreciation in the currency will help to make full use of the domestic labor force, which is China’s most sufficient resource,” the report explained.
It also forecast inflation might show a deceleration in June as food, vegetables and fruit prices dropped. The CPI was expected to rise 7.3 percent in June year on year.
Source: China Daily
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