China’s port capacity exceeds demand
October 30, 2008
China’s port and shipping industry has been at its lowest ebb this year in terms of performance, and the situation may worsen in 2009, Xinhua Business Weekly reported.
This is the consensus of the 140-plus representatives representing 94 container wharves nationwide, attending the China Port, Container Wharf Summit Forum.
The transport capacity of shipping companies has far exceeded the market demand in China at present.
The freight charge for routes to Asia and America has dropped from US$1,000 per TEU early this year to $300 to $400 at present.
Many shipping companies have annexed sea routes and sealed orders to new ships. Handling capacity of ports is also oversupplied.
It is expected that the container handling capacity of Shanghai International Port (Group) (SIPG) will reach 28.5 million TEUs this year, falling short of the capacity target set earlier this year.
Source:CNA
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China’s ICBC opens first subsidiary bank in Middle East
October 22, 2008
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates, Oct. 20 (Xinhua) — The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the world’s largest bank by market capitalization, opened Monday its first Middle East subsidiary bank in Dubai, the commercial and financial hub of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The opening of ICBC Middle East, the first wholly-owned Chinese subsidiary bank in the region, marks a major step by the ICBC toward expanding overseas financial services and promoting its internationalization strategy.
Based on its financial resilience, advanced expertise and diversified business platform, ICBC Middle East will be committed to building a direct and accessible bridge for investment and trade among China, the UAE and other Middle East countries, said Jiang Jianqing, chairman of ICBC.
ICBC Middle East will make full use of the geographic advantage and financial resources of Dubai and will gradually expand the scope of business to the entire Middle East and North Africa, he added.
With the highest rating business license from local financial regulator, ICBC Middle East will provide a full range of financial services, including deposit, credit, trade finance, investment, asset management, consultation and custody.
As China’s largest commercial bank, the ICBC has been expediting the extension of overseas network and widening the field of business, in a bid to promote the strategy of internationalization.
The bank launched two branches in Sydney and New York in the past few weeks. It will open a new branch in Doha, capital of Qatar, on Tuesday.
By the end of June 2008, the ICBC has set up a total of 126 branches and subsidiary banks in 15 countries and regions, with another 1,360 correspondent banks in 122 countries and regions.
Source: China Daily
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As Inflation Falls,Time to Support Growth
October 19, 2008
As we frequently emphasized in our posts and told our clients, Chinese government was waging a war against inflation by tightening monetary policies which widely hurts exports of China. Now with the August inflation lowered to %4.9, China rapidly moved to support growth again:
It’s time for China to boost growth  (By Wang Yanlin, Shaghai Daily Newspaper)
IN the first eight months of the year, the government’s top priority, while framing macro economic policies, was the fight against inflation. But there has been a slight shift in emphasis.
Last Monday when Vice Premier Wang Qishan delivered a speech at the 12th China International Fair for Investment and Trade in Xiamen, Fujian Province, he said the current goal of the government was to “realize a stable and relatively fast economic growth” and “put the rising inflation under control.”
This is possibly the first time that “spurring growth” has been put higher on the agenda than “curbing inflation” by a heavy-weight government official during a formal business occasion this year.
Policy makers are usually very circumspect while commenting on policy issues in public. So is Wang’s public stance an indication that top decision makers could be considering the odds of adjusting macroeconomic policies? This may well be so.
Economists and analysts have been urging the government to shift focus from taming inflation to supporting growth.
The newly released economic data show China’s gross domestic product has slowed to 10.1 percent in the second quarter, down from 10.6 percent in the first three months and 11.9 percent last year.
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, grew at 4.9 percent in August – the slowest pace in 14 months. It has been on the decline for four consecutive months and the speed at which inflation eased went beyond economists’ boldest expectations.
Industry slowing
In contrast to the softening inflationary pressure, the risk of slower economic growth is intensifying.
In August, industrial production grew 12.8 percent, the slowest since February last year.
Among the sectors which dragged down output was the automobile industry, which used to be a major growth driver. The automobile sector fell 3.3 percent last month.
Exports, another key element of overall economic expansion, rose 21.1 percent in August, cooling down from a 22.9-percent jump a month earlier.
The slower growth came despite the government increasing export tax rebates for textiles and garments – the two sectors hardest hit by yuan appreciation and weaker demand from developed markets.
China’s urban fixed-asset investment increased 27.4 percent in the first eight months, keeping a stable growth momentum. But analysts said this was mainly bolstered by the demand created by the May 12 earthquake in Sichuan Province.
On the other hand, domestic consumption looks robust. Retail sales in August jumped 23.2 percent, slightly up from the July figure which saw the fastest rise since 1996.
However, the rest of the year may see a downturn with no new strong selling points, like the housing and automobile sectors of the past, to boost growth.
All figures now seem to point in one direction °?- that the government should take concrete steps to sustain economic growth. Huang Yiping, an economist with Citigroup, said the CPI which fell below 5 percent in August could help shift the balance of policy concerns toward growth.
Sops may work
“The probability of a policy reversal may rise significantly in the coming months, as global economic conditions continue to deteriorate and domestic corporate sectors increasingly feel the impact of growth slowdown,” said Huang.
“Although the People’s Bank of China has so far maintained its bias toward tight monetary policies, it has introduced a number of measures to fine-tune trade policies as well in recent months,” he added.
The analyst said that the central bank’s steps include expansion of credit quota, slowdown of currency appreciation and increases in export tax rebates.
“This shift in policy concerns should be reinforced to keep the CPI at a healthy level,” Huang noted.
But there is a major hurdle in the way of a complete turnaround as producer prices, the factory-gate inflation measure, also keep going up.
The Producer Price Index in August soared to 10.1 percent, the highest in 12 years. Rising factory-gate costs are generally passed on to the end users, but this may in turn affect consumer prices, analysts said.
Economists suggest China should continue with its fine-tuning measures for the time being. Relaxing the credit quota, slowing down yuan appreciation and selected reduction of tax burden could go a long way to boost the economy.
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China’s inflation cools at last
October 14, 2008
Inflation rates are crucially important for China’s economy. To me, it is the most decisive indicator in shaping government policies on economy, finance, trade etc.
For example, the soaring inflation at the beginning of the year was the main reason behind the tightening monetary policy which squeezes credits for factories, makes trade policies restrictive, quickens the appreciation of chinese currency. So every company making business with China needs to follow the inflation gadget to foresee possible risks and opportunities.
China’s inflation cools at last
By Lydia Chen (Sanghai Daily)
CHINA’S inflation rate dropped to the slowest pace since June 2007 with smaller gains in food prices, a boost to policy makers working on adjusting macroeconomic policies to support the country’s economic growth.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of inflation, rose 4.9 percent in August from a year earlier, after gaining 6.3 percent in July, the National Bureau of Statistics said this morning.
Food costs, accounting for a third of the CPI basket, surged 10.3 percent year on year last month. Within the category, meat and poultry prices soared 8 percent in August.
The cost of pork, the nation’s staple meat, increased 1 percent last month from a year ago while cooking oil prices rose 22.7 percent. Vegetable prices were down 0.5 percent last month from a year ago. Grain prices gained 8 percent in the period.
The combined CPI grew 7.3 percent from January to August, the bureau said.
Consumer-price inflation has slowed for four months. February’s 8.7 percent pace was the fastest in 12 years. The central bank’s target for the year is 4.8 percent, the same as the actual rate in 2007.
But producer-price inflation advanced 10.1 percent in August after rising 10 percent in July. The August jump was the fastest pace since at least 1996, according to the bureau today.
The faster producer inflation rate may lead policy makers to introduce more balanced measures to boost growth against the risk that inflation will accelerate again.
China may adopt tax cuts, a slower pace of yuan appreciation and more easing of lending restrictions to protect jobs and avoid an economic slump as export demand falters.
China’s economy expanded 10.1 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, slowing for a fourth straight quarter, as exports cooled. Many economists said the growth may ease to 9 percent this year.
Profit growth for listed companies slumped in the first half, helping push the key stock index in the Shanghai market down nearly 60 percent so far this year. Weaker overseas demand, rising costs and a strengthening currency have put pressure on exporters of shoes, toys and clothes.
Economists expect China’s monetary policy will steadily turn more growth-friendly, given the concerns and moderating inflation.
In July, the central bank eased restrictions on how much banks can lend. It raised the 2008 loan quotas for national banks by 5 percent and for regional lenders by 10 percent, according to reports by the Goldman Sachs Group Inc, BNP Paribas SA, and the China Merchants Bank Co.
The People’s Bank of China has kept interest rates unchanged this year and hasn’t increased the reserve ratio for banks — the proportion of deposits that lenders are required to set aside — since June.
The Chinese yuan has climbed only 0.2 percent against the dollar this quarter after a 6.5 percent advance in the first half. Gains hurt exporters by making their products more expensive and less attractive in overseas markets.
The government has already cut taxes on exports of textiles and garments and encouraged more lending to small and medium-sized businesses. Officials are working on a plan for as much as 400 billion yuan (US$58 billion) in tax cuts and spending to prevent an economic slump, according to economists and reports in domestic news media.
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China, difficult for manufacturers to leave
October 10, 2008
It is being recently told that costs are rising in China, like all over the World. But it is hard to move your sourcing away China. An Article written by Venkatesan Vembu published in DNA India explains why :
“Â Â For all the hand-wringing over the rising cost of sourcing from China, the country’s scale of manufacturing operations, the depth of its supply base and its famed infrastructural advantages make it a difficult country for manufacturers to leave for elsewhere, say economists, business consultants and businessmen.
“Where else but in China can you source the huge quantity of goods that Wal-Mart needs, for instance?” asks Jing Ulrich, chairman of China equities at JP Morgan Securities. Countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh may be able to take some marketshare from China in some industries, but they’re not going to be able to replicate the huge scale of manufacturing that China has built up over the past 30 years, she adds.
China still offers cost advantages in many verticals, points out Richard Brubaker, managing director of China Strategic Development Partners, a Shanghai-based business consultancy. “It’s hard for many manufacturers to leave China because there is no business case to move.”
China’s supply base is huge, and entire industries – such as automobiles and computers – have Tier 1-3 suppliers in place in China, observes Brubaker. “If a particular group decides to move out of China, for whatever reason, it loses out on the scale of support.”
Hong Kong-based garments manufacturer M Arunchalam, who sources from China for the world markets, agrees. Earlier this year, he moved a fifth of his supply lines from China to Vietnam and Bangladesh citing rising wage costs and tighter enforcement of pollution control laws. But even he acknowledges that it is hard for him to go to India, for instance, and replicate his China model, given the limitations of infrastructure there.
“If I want to make 2 million pairs of jeans and I have the fabric, I may go to Chennai, but I cannot wash it because there is no water,” says Arunchalam. “The entire processing industry is dying in India because of inadequate infrastructure.”
Ulrich notes that China remains a competitive producer of many goods, but that it feels the need to exit low-end manufacturing industries such as textiles, garments and shoes, which operate on thin margins. “In low-end manufacturing, which is labour-intensive and materials-intensive, China is not going to be as competitive as it once was.”
China, she adds, is looking to move up the value chain into machinery manufacturing, including high-end goods and telecommunication equipment. “This is where the bright spots will be.” And in these high-end industries, especially machinery equipment, China is beginning to command higher marketshare globally, she points out.
“If you take a look at China’s overall composition of exports, nearly 50% of it this year will be in the machinery sector. This is clearly where China’s overall competitiveness lies.”
Going forward, she says, she expects China to take on global players in their home markets. “Who knows, years from now, Chinese high-end machinery equipment may be sold in Germany, the US and Japan, not just in emerging markets.”
In that context, says Ulrich, moving elsewhere is not a solution for manufacturers.
In any case, Brubaker points out, many firms are not manufacturing in China solely for export. “Many of them are now manufacturing for the China market and are doing very well in that endeavour. For them to move to another country would not only add costs to bring those goods to the China market, it would also create higher barriers.”
And then, says Brubaker, there’s the comfort factor. “China is a known place: firms have already negotiated and closed their deals here. To start over in a country like India or Vietnam would be a long-drawn process where relationships would need to be established, deals negotiated, staff hired and capacity developed.”
Article by DNA India: Why China is so hard to leave
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