As Inflation Falls,Time to Support Growth
October 19, 2008
As we frequently emphasized in our posts and told our clients, Chinese government was waging a war against inflation by tightening monetary policies which widely hurts exports of China. Now with the August inflation lowered to %4.9, China rapidly moved to support growth again:
It’s time for China to boost growth (By Wang Yanlin, Shaghai Daily Newspaper)
IN the first eight months of the year, the government’s top priority, while framing macro economic policies, was the fight against inflation. But there has been a slight shift in emphasis.
Last Monday when Vice Premier Wang Qishan delivered a speech at the 12th China International Fair for Investment and Trade in Xiamen, Fujian Province, he said the current goal of the government was to “realize a stable and relatively fast economic growth” and “put the rising inflation under control.”
This is possibly the first time that “spurring growth” has been put higher on the agenda than “curbing inflation” by a heavy-weight government official during a formal business occasion this year.
Policy makers are usually very circumspect while commenting on policy issues in public. So is Wang’s public stance an indication that top decision makers could be considering the odds of adjusting macroeconomic policies? This may well be so.
Economists and analysts have been urging the government to shift focus from taming inflation to supporting growth.
The newly released economic data show China’s gross domestic product has slowed to 10.1 percent in the second quarter, down from 10.6 percent in the first three months and 11.9 percent last year.
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, grew at 4.9 percent in August – the slowest pace in 14 months. It has been on the decline for four consecutive months and the speed at which inflation eased went beyond economists’ boldest expectations.
Industry slowing
In contrast to the softening inflationary pressure, the risk of slower economic growth is intensifying.
In August, industrial production grew 12.8 percent, the slowest since February last year.
Among the sectors which dragged down output was the automobile industry, which used to be a major growth driver. The automobile sector fell 3.3 percent last month.
Exports, another key element of overall economic expansion, rose 21.1 percent in August, cooling down from a 22.9-percent jump a month earlier.
The slower growth came despite the government increasing export tax rebates for textiles and garments – the two sectors hardest hit by yuan appreciation and weaker demand from developed markets.
China’s urban fixed-asset investment increased 27.4 percent in the first eight months, keeping a stable growth momentum. But analysts said this was mainly bolstered by the demand created by the May 12 earthquake in Sichuan Province.
On the other hand, domestic consumption looks robust. Retail sales in August jumped 23.2 percent, slightly up from the July figure which saw the fastest rise since 1996.
However, the rest of the year may see a downturn with no new strong selling points, like the housing and automobile sectors of the past, to boost growth.
All figures now seem to point in one direction °?- that the government should take concrete steps to sustain economic growth. Huang Yiping, an economist with Citigroup, said the CPI which fell below 5 percent in August could help shift the balance of policy concerns toward growth.
Sops may work
“The probability of a policy reversal may rise significantly in the coming months, as global economic conditions continue to deteriorate and domestic corporate sectors increasingly feel the impact of growth slowdown,” said Huang.
“Although the People’s Bank of China has so far maintained its bias toward tight monetary policies, it has introduced a number of measures to fine-tune trade policies as well in recent months,” he added.
The analyst said that the central bank’s steps include expansion of credit quota, slowdown of currency appreciation and increases in export tax rebates.
“This shift in policy concerns should be reinforced to keep the CPI at a healthy level,” Huang noted.
But there is a major hurdle in the way of a complete turnaround as producer prices, the factory-gate inflation measure, also keep going up.
The Producer Price Index in August soared to 10.1 percent, the highest in 12 years. Rising factory-gate costs are generally passed on to the end users, but this may in turn affect consumer prices, analysts said.
Economists suggest China should continue with its fine-tuning measures for the time being. Relaxing the credit quota, slowing down yuan appreciation and selected reduction of tax burden could go a long way to boost the economy.
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China’s inflation cools at last
October 14, 2008
Inflation rates are crucially important for China’s economy. To me, it is the most decisive indicator in shaping government policies on economy, finance, trade etc.
For example, the soaring inflation at the beginning of the year was the main reason behind the tightening monetary policy which squeezes credits for factories, makes trade policies restrictive, quickens the appreciation of chinese currency. So every company making business with China needs to follow the inflation gadget to foresee possible risks and opportunities.
China’s inflation cools at last
By Lydia Chen (Sanghai Daily)
CHINA’S inflation rate dropped to the slowest pace since June 2007 with smaller gains in food prices, a boost to policy makers working on adjusting macroeconomic policies to support the country’s economic growth.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of inflation, rose 4.9 percent in August from a year earlier, after gaining 6.3 percent in July, the National Bureau of Statistics said this morning.
Food costs, accounting for a third of the CPI basket, surged 10.3 percent year on year last month. Within the category, meat and poultry prices soared 8 percent in August.
The cost of pork, the nation’s staple meat, increased 1 percent last month from a year ago while cooking oil prices rose 22.7 percent. Vegetable prices were down 0.5 percent last month from a year ago. Grain prices gained 8 percent in the period.
The combined CPI grew 7.3 percent from January to August, the bureau said.
Consumer-price inflation has slowed for four months. February’s 8.7 percent pace was the fastest in 12 years. The central bank’s target for the year is 4.8 percent, the same as the actual rate in 2007.
But producer-price inflation advanced 10.1 percent in August after rising 10 percent in July. The August jump was the fastest pace since at least 1996, according to the bureau today.
The faster producer inflation rate may lead policy makers to introduce more balanced measures to boost growth against the risk that inflation will accelerate again.
China may adopt tax cuts, a slower pace of yuan appreciation and more easing of lending restrictions to protect jobs and avoid an economic slump as export demand falters.
China’s economy expanded 10.1 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, slowing for a fourth straight quarter, as exports cooled. Many economists said the growth may ease to 9 percent this year.
Profit growth for listed companies slumped in the first half, helping push the key stock index in the Shanghai market down nearly 60 percent so far this year. Weaker overseas demand, rising costs and a strengthening currency have put pressure on exporters of shoes, toys and clothes.
Economists expect China’s monetary policy will steadily turn more growth-friendly, given the concerns and moderating inflation.
In July, the central bank eased restrictions on how much banks can lend. It raised the 2008 loan quotas for national banks by 5 percent and for regional lenders by 10 percent, according to reports by the Goldman Sachs Group Inc, BNP Paribas SA, and the China Merchants Bank Co.
The People’s Bank of China has kept interest rates unchanged this year and hasn’t increased the reserve ratio for banks — the proportion of deposits that lenders are required to set aside — since June.
The Chinese yuan has climbed only 0.2 percent against the dollar this quarter after a 6.5 percent advance in the first half. Gains hurt exporters by making their products more expensive and less attractive in overseas markets.
The government has already cut taxes on exports of textiles and garments and encouraged more lending to small and medium-sized businesses. Officials are working on a plan for as much as 400 billion yuan (US$58 billion) in tax cuts and spending to prevent an economic slump, according to economists and reports in domestic news media.
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China Tightening Foreign Investment Restrictions
September 7, 2008
Under pressure from nationlists, China’s government is expected to continue blocking approval of foreign investments in key sectors. In particular, any involving “national strategic industries,” a definition which now specifically includes the bearing industry. And while rejecting more foreign investors outright, it is also consolidating many sectors under state control.
The China Industrial Security Center, part of the State Economic and Trade Commission, said its studies now show foreign merger and acquisition activity in China has reached the point where it has led to essential monopolies in some industries, threatening domestically owned and controlled businesses.
In addition, foreign investment is seen as potentially weakening China’s control over its own destiny in developing infrastructure and supplying defense-related needs.
CISC holds that foreign investments have not produced the often-promised results — access to new technology, international synergies, productivity gains — or delivered operating advantages, or any special improvement in the business at all.
Instead, CISC says allowing foreign direct investment has many risks :
• Market manipulation. It now claims foreign investors use the Chinese companies as tools to control specific domestic Chinese markets, earn outsized profits, then ship those profits out of China and overseas to the parent company.
• Impact on local economies. CISC said China’s economic safety is at risk in allowing foreign financing and ownership of raw materials supplied to domestic energy, transportation, and similar infrastructure dependencies. Similarly, autonomy is at risk when foreigners own key support businesses in the finance and publication sectors.
• Hindering local industry. When they come to relying on foreign funding, input and control, the Chinese businesses become too passive in developing their own skills, products and technologies. This threatens the future of business and may ultimately threaten China’s defense security.
The bearing manufacturing industry was specifically cited as an example of one where foreign involvement should be limited. In the bearing industry, foreign ownership should spark concern — because reliance on foreign resources hinders organic domestic development of skills and resources, and also because it creates the potential for China to rely on foreign-owned bearing manufacturers for the availability of key components needed for domestic security.
• Foreign ownership of large businesses in China, with no government controls, is a threat to the traditional economic system, which relies on many small-scale manufacturers. CISC said foreign-owned multinationals have unfair advantages over local businesses which can be short of technology savvy, and/or do not have much export sales built up.
In China, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) account for as much as 70% of domestic manufacturing output. Their access to capital has been hurt by recent government reforms aimed at tightening inflation and throttling back overheated growth.
Recent statistics issued by the State indicate manufacturing businesses are involved in nearly a quarter of all foreign-funded M&A activity in China. Overall, there were 169 M&A deals in China during second quarter 2008 — up 225% from first quarter.
Despite the central government’s stance on majority foreign ownership, locally-solicited foreign investment has been accelerating in manufacturing-heavy provinces. For example, FDI in Sichuan Province this year is up 108% to USD $1.8 billion, despite May’s devastating earthquake. Over 180 new foreign-funded businesses were given approval to begin operations in Sichuan, down 13 percent from 2007. But those businesses have agreed to invest more than $4.2 billion, up 208% from 2007.
Arcelor Mittal was recently rebuffed in its efforts to become more deeply involved in the highly fragmented Chinese steel industry. The Chinese government is consolidating steel producers; it wants the 10 largest, currently at 35% market share, to be at 50% by 2010, and 70% by 2020. Lakshmi Mittal said; “I do not see that in a year or so, the Chinese government will change their strategy where they do not want foreign companies to have a majority control.”
Source: bearings-china.com.cn
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China to overtake US as largest manufacturer
August 13, 2008
Published at the Financial Times By Peter Marsh .
China is set to overtake the US next year as the world’s largest producer of manufactured goods, four years earlier than expected, as a result of the rapidly weakening US economy.
The great leap is revealed in forecasts for the Financial Times by Global Insight, a US economics consultancy. According to the estimates, next year China will account for 17 per cent of manufacturing value-added output of $11,783bn and the US will make 16 per cent.
Last year the US was still easily in the top slot and accounted for a fifth of the total. China was second with 13.2 per cent.
John Engler, president of the National Association of Manufacturers, a Washington-based trade group, played down the effect of the projections. It was “inevitable” that China would take over on account of its size, he said. “This should be a wholesome development for the US, for it promises both political stability for the world’s largest country and continuing opportunities for the US to export to, and invest in, the world’s fastest-growing economy.”
As recently as last year, Global Insight economists predicted that the US would retain the top position until 2013, but a large downward revision in likely output this year and next is expected to cause the US to slip more quickly than had been expected.
The data underline the surge of China’s manufacturing-led economy in the past 20 years. In 1990, before economic reforms began to work, it accounted for a meagre 3 per cent of global manufacturing. Manufacturing accounted for just 17.5 per cent of global gross domestic product in 2007, but much activity in the considerably larger area of services, for instance in retailing, distribution, transport and communications, depends on it.
The expected change will end more than a 100 years of US dominance. It returns China to a position it occupied, according to economic historians, for some 1,800 years up to about 1840, when Britain became the world’s biggest manufacturer after its Industrial Revolution.
Global Insight counts manufacturing production for countries – including the activity of foreign-owned companies and local ones – as value-added output.
Value-added data are arrived at by subtracting “inputs” – such as purchases of materials, parts and services – from raw “gross output” as measured by the sales of individual companies. The data also use current-year figures.
If inflation adjustments are used to put the numbers in constant prices, the expected US position looks better, because its inflation over this period is predicted to be lower than China’s.
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China’s Bearing Manufacturers Driving Record Speciality Steel Volume
June 25, 2008
In 2005, China’s officially constituted bearing and actuation surroundings manufacturers, it estimates, module spend a newborn achievement of more than 1.6 meg heaps of 52100 rod. It did not substance an judge of obligation for 52100 tube. The judge also does not bourgeois in obligation from the eld of second-tier and third-tier bearing manufacturers — who run to obtain poise finished summary channels and a vast clothing of unmonitored sources. The Peoples Republic of China is not still healthy to display sufficiency high-quality specialty poise to foregather its possess interior demand; husbandly creation has been convergent on high-volume structural poise and sheet/coils. According to the CASSE, the vast eld of 52100 poise utilised in China module move to be imported from aggregation and Asia. Increasing the country’s creation of high-quality, specialty alloy, stainless, and another specialty poise is a key pore of polity poise stock utilization efforts.
Source: China Daily
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