As Inflation Falls,Time to Support Growth
October 19, 2008
As we frequently emphasized in our posts and told our clients, Chinese government was waging a war against inflation by tightening monetary policies which widely hurts exports of China. Now with the August inflation lowered to %4.9, China rapidly moved to support growth again:
It’s time for China to boost growth  (By Wang Yanlin, Shaghai Daily Newspaper)
IN the first eight months of the year, the government’s top priority, while framing macro economic policies, was the fight against inflation. But there has been a slight shift in emphasis.
Last Monday when Vice Premier Wang Qishan delivered a speech at the 12th China International Fair for Investment and Trade in Xiamen, Fujian Province, he said the current goal of the government was to “realize a stable and relatively fast economic growth” and “put the rising inflation under control.”
This is possibly the first time that “spurring growth” has been put higher on the agenda than “curbing inflation” by a heavy-weight government official during a formal business occasion this year.
Policy makers are usually very circumspect while commenting on policy issues in public. So is Wang’s public stance an indication that top decision makers could be considering the odds of adjusting macroeconomic policies? This may well be so.
Economists and analysts have been urging the government to shift focus from taming inflation to supporting growth.
The newly released economic data show China’s gross domestic product has slowed to 10.1 percent in the second quarter, down from 10.6 percent in the first three months and 11.9 percent last year.
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, grew at 4.9 percent in August – the slowest pace in 14 months. It has been on the decline for four consecutive months and the speed at which inflation eased went beyond economists’ boldest expectations.
Industry slowing
In contrast to the softening inflationary pressure, the risk of slower economic growth is intensifying.
In August, industrial production grew 12.8 percent, the slowest since February last year.
Among the sectors which dragged down output was the automobile industry, which used to be a major growth driver. The automobile sector fell 3.3 percent last month.
Exports, another key element of overall economic expansion, rose 21.1 percent in August, cooling down from a 22.9-percent jump a month earlier.
The slower growth came despite the government increasing export tax rebates for textiles and garments – the two sectors hardest hit by yuan appreciation and weaker demand from developed markets.
China’s urban fixed-asset investment increased 27.4 percent in the first eight months, keeping a stable growth momentum. But analysts said this was mainly bolstered by the demand created by the May 12 earthquake in Sichuan Province.
On the other hand, domestic consumption looks robust. Retail sales in August jumped 23.2 percent, slightly up from the July figure which saw the fastest rise since 1996.
However, the rest of the year may see a downturn with no new strong selling points, like the housing and automobile sectors of the past, to boost growth.
All figures now seem to point in one direction °?- that the government should take concrete steps to sustain economic growth. Huang Yiping, an economist with Citigroup, said the CPI which fell below 5 percent in August could help shift the balance of policy concerns toward growth.
Sops may work
“The probability of a policy reversal may rise significantly in the coming months, as global economic conditions continue to deteriorate and domestic corporate sectors increasingly feel the impact of growth slowdown,” said Huang.
“Although the People’s Bank of China has so far maintained its bias toward tight monetary policies, it has introduced a number of measures to fine-tune trade policies as well in recent months,” he added.
The analyst said that the central bank’s steps include expansion of credit quota, slowdown of currency appreciation and increases in export tax rebates.
“This shift in policy concerns should be reinforced to keep the CPI at a healthy level,” Huang noted.
But there is a major hurdle in the way of a complete turnaround as producer prices, the factory-gate inflation measure, also keep going up.
The Producer Price Index in August soared to 10.1 percent, the highest in 12 years. Rising factory-gate costs are generally passed on to the end users, but this may in turn affect consumer prices, analysts said.
Economists suggest China should continue with its fine-tuning measures for the time being. Relaxing the credit quota, slowing down yuan appreciation and selected reduction of tax burden could go a long way to boost the economy.
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Suggestions By MOC to Support China’s Exports
October 15, 2008
Acording to Nanfang Daily Newspaper, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOC) has officially made suggestions to the State Council, or the cabinet, to increase tax rebates for certain exporting items including garments, toys and shoes.
The suggestions aiming at preventing exports from sliding more! Here you can read the news from China Daily:
Customs data showed that trade surplus for the first six months shrank to US$99 billion, down by 11.8 percent year-on-year, and the trade surplus in June alone declined by more than 20.6 percent, making it US$5.5 billion less than the previous month.
Exports of the most seriously influenced textile and garment sectors declined by 4.2 percent year-on-year to US$15.5 billion in June, representing the slowest increase in five years.
The sources said last week the State Council required the MOC to hand in a report on China’s foreign trade in the first half of this year.
In the report, the MOC said export enterprises need more time to make adjustments to unexpected challenges such as rising raw material prices, the appreciation of the yuan and the slowdown of US economy, or more firms will close their doors, the newspaper reported.
“Some industries, especially the garment and textile sectors, are facing export difficulties brought by the international economy change and the appreciation of yuan,” said vice minister of commerce Gao Hucheng on Monday.
Gao said the MOC and related parties are working on policy changes accordingly.
The newspaper said the ministry has suggested that policies shift to support the export businesses by increasing tax rebates and slowing down yuan appreciation.
China’s currency, the yuan, last Friday broke the 6.84 mark to set a new high against the weakening US dollar for the second consecutive day.
The newspaper said in its report that the textile export rebate will be increased to 13 percent from 11 percent, and the garment export rebate will be lifted to 15 percent from 11 percent.
“Given the pain of the textile enterprises, it’s just a matter of time before the government shifts its policies,” said Wang Qian, Webtextile.com editor-in-chief was quoted by the newspaer as saying.
At the beginning of the month, Premier Wen Jiabao visited Shanghai and Jiangsu. Last week, other top leaders, including Vice Premier Li Keqiang and Commerce Minister Chen Deming, traveled to export-oriented provinces and visited enterprises, many of which were in the textile sector.
This week, the central economic work conference will be held in Beijing, and the meeting will appraise the macro economy in the first half of this year.
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China’s inflation cools at last
October 14, 2008
Inflation rates are crucially important for China’s economy. To me, it is the most decisive indicator in shaping government policies on economy, finance, trade etc.
For example, the soaring inflation at the beginning of the year was the main reason behind the tightening monetary policy which squeezes credits for factories, makes trade policies restrictive, quickens the appreciation of chinese currency. So every company making business with China needs to follow the inflation gadget to foresee possible risks and opportunities.
China’s inflation cools at last
By Lydia Chen (Sanghai Daily)
CHINA’S inflation rate dropped to the slowest pace since June 2007 with smaller gains in food prices, a boost to policy makers working on adjusting macroeconomic policies to support the country’s economic growth.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of inflation, rose 4.9 percent in August from a year earlier, after gaining 6.3 percent in July, the National Bureau of Statistics said this morning.
Food costs, accounting for a third of the CPI basket, surged 10.3 percent year on year last month. Within the category, meat and poultry prices soared 8 percent in August.
The cost of pork, the nation’s staple meat, increased 1 percent last month from a year ago while cooking oil prices rose 22.7 percent. Vegetable prices were down 0.5 percent last month from a year ago. Grain prices gained 8 percent in the period.
The combined CPI grew 7.3 percent from January to August, the bureau said.
Consumer-price inflation has slowed for four months. February’s 8.7 percent pace was the fastest in 12 years. The central bank’s target for the year is 4.8 percent, the same as the actual rate in 2007.
But producer-price inflation advanced 10.1 percent in August after rising 10 percent in July. The August jump was the fastest pace since at least 1996, according to the bureau today.
The faster producer inflation rate may lead policy makers to introduce more balanced measures to boost growth against the risk that inflation will accelerate again.
China may adopt tax cuts, a slower pace of yuan appreciation and more easing of lending restrictions to protect jobs and avoid an economic slump as export demand falters.
China’s economy expanded 10.1 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, slowing for a fourth straight quarter, as exports cooled. Many economists said the growth may ease to 9 percent this year.
Profit growth for listed companies slumped in the first half, helping push the key stock index in the Shanghai market down nearly 60 percent so far this year. Weaker overseas demand, rising costs and a strengthening currency have put pressure on exporters of shoes, toys and clothes.
Economists expect China’s monetary policy will steadily turn more growth-friendly, given the concerns and moderating inflation.
In July, the central bank eased restrictions on how much banks can lend. It raised the 2008 loan quotas for national banks by 5 percent and for regional lenders by 10 percent, according to reports by the Goldman Sachs Group Inc, BNP Paribas SA, and the China Merchants Bank Co.
The People’s Bank of China has kept interest rates unchanged this year and hasn’t increased the reserve ratio for banks — the proportion of deposits that lenders are required to set aside — since June.
The Chinese yuan has climbed only 0.2 percent against the dollar this quarter after a 6.5 percent advance in the first half. Gains hurt exporters by making their products more expensive and less attractive in overseas markets.
The government has already cut taxes on exports of textiles and garments and encouraged more lending to small and medium-sized businesses. Officials are working on a plan for as much as 400 billion yuan (US$58 billion) in tax cuts and spending to prevent an economic slump, according to economists and reports in domestic news media.
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China Machine Tool Industry Research 2008
October 13, 2008
China Machine Tool Industry Research 2008
http://www.reportlinker.com/p091023/China-Machine-Tool-Industry-Research-2008.html
China’s machine tool industry plays an important role in world machine tool industry in recent years. In the aspect of output value, China has accounted 1/4 of the world machine tools. Therefore, the healthy development of China’s machine tool industry will promote the world machine tool industry continues to maintain a rapid development.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics data of whole machine tool industry, in 2007 the 4291 manufactories achieved RMB 274.77 billion in industrial output value, up 35.5 per cent year-on-year; RMB 268.1 billion of sale revenue, an increase of 36.2 per cent year-on-year; throughput of 97.6 per cent, an increase of 0.5 per cent year-on-year.
In 2007, the output of metal-cutting machine tool was 606,835 sets, an increase of 11.7 per cent year-on-year, among NC metal-cutting machine tool 123,257 sets, an increase of 32.6 per cent year-on-year; forming machine tool 172,766 sets, an increase of 9.2 per cent year-on-year, among NC forming machine tool 3,011 sets, an increase of 53.7 per cent year-on-year; Woodworking machinery production and casting machinery 19.2 per cent and 15.4 per cent year-on-year respectively, metal cutting tools fell 0.4 per cent year-on-year.
Machine tool export has continued to grow rapidly. In 2007 it made $5.2 billion, up 36.2 per cent year-on-year, including metal processing machine tool $1.65 billion, increased 39.2 per cent year-on-year, NC metal processing machine tool $500 million , an in crease of 48.2 per cent year-on-year, accounting for 30 per cent of the metal processing machine tool, metal-cutting machine tool $1.22 billion, up 31.6 per cent year-on-year, forming machine tool $430 million, up 66.5 per cent year-on-year.
In 2007, the imports of machine tool was $11.77 billion, an increase of 5.7 per cent year-on-year, among metal processing machines tool $7.07 billion, a decrease of 2.4 per cent year-on-year. China’s foreign trade deficit of metal processing machine tool reached $5.42 in 2007, lower than the same period last year $6.06 billion.
Considering the overheated economy and higher inflation, the central government has tied the monetary policy, which has already affected on some investments, particularly small and medium-sized machine tool investors. China’s machine tool industry is expected to slow down, but, on the other hand, high-value-added products such as NC machine tool, large and heavy machine tool will still keep a strong growth, especially the state key projects and 16 major science and technology projects will boost the domestic demand for high-technical NC machine tool. China is expected to maintain a strong demand for NC machine tool in the next three to five years; in particular the large-scale NC machine tools will remain a 30 per cent growth.
Contents1 The Circumstance of Global Machine tool industry1.1 Production1.2 Consumption1.3 Import and Export1.3.1 Export1.3.2 Import1.3.3 Total Amount of Imports and Exports1.4 Summary2 The Circumstance of China’s Machine Tool Industry2.1 The Performance of the whole Industry2.2 The Products of Metal-Cutting Machine Tool2.2.1 Output2.2.2 Value of output2.2.3 Value of output/per unit2.3 Import and Export of Machine Tool Industry2.3.1 Import and Export Amount2.3.2 Export destination2.3.3 Import region2.3.4 Export Products2.3.5 Import Products2.4 The competition pattern in Machine Tool Industry2.4.1 Types of Ownership2.4.2 Concentration of Machine Tool Industry2.5 Impact of Policy3. The future development trend3.1 The Domestic Products will Gradual Substitute Overseas Products3.2 Upgrading of Product Structure and high-technical Products3.3 Expansion of Export3.4 The Rising Price of Cast Iron and Increasing Cost4 key Companies4.1 Kunming Machine Tool4.1.1 Brief4.1.2 Performance4.1.3 The main Business-machine tool4.2 Zhejiang Tianma Bearing Co., Ltd / QIQIHAR HEAVY CNC EQUIPMENT CORPORATION LIMITEDFigure IndexThe Proportion of China’s NC Machine Tool of Metal-cutting Machine Tool 2000-2007The Output Value and Year-on-Year Growth of World Major Manufacturing Countries of Machine ToolsThe value of Output of World Major Manufacturing Countries of Machine tools 2002-2007The Market Share of World Major Manufacturing Countries of Machine Tools 2007The World Machine Tool Consumption of Major Countries 2002-2007The World Machine Tool Export of Major Countries 2002-2007The Output and Growth of China’s Metal-Cutting Machine Tool and NC Machine Tool 2000-2007The Output and Proportion of various products of China’s Metal-cutting Machine ToolThe Output and Proportion of various products of China’s NC Metal-cutting Machine ToolThe Output Value/per unit of China’s machine tool Metal-Cutting tool ProductsForeign Trade Deficit of China’s Machine Tool IndustryThe Amount of Export and Import and Growth rate of China’s Metal-working Machine Tool 1995-2007Foreign Trade Deficit of China’s Metal-working Machine Tool 1995-2007The Export Destinations and Growth of China’s Metal-working Machine Tool 2007The Share of Import Countries of China’s Metal-working Machine Tool 2007The Share of Export Countries of China’s Metal-working Machine Tool 2007The Amount of Exports and Growth of China’s Metal-Cutting Machine Tool Products Jan-Oct 2007The Amount of Imports and Growth of China’s Metal-Cutting Machine Tool Products Jan-Oct 2007The Ownership of Machine Tool IndustryThe Impact of tax policies on Machine Tool listed companiesComparison of Market Share Between Import and Domestic Metal-working Machine Tool 2001-2007The Amount of Foreign Trade Deficit and Growth of China’s Metal-cutting Machine Tool ProductsThe Output, Import and Growth of China’s Machining CentreThe Value of Output of Machining Centre and Proportion of Total Metal-Cutting Machine Tool of Major Countries 2006The Amount of China’s Metal-Cutting Machine Tool Exports and the proportion of Output Value and compared with the world average LevelThe Price Index of China’s scrap, cast iron, cokeThe Cost of Machine Tool IndustryThe Incomes and Growth of Net Profit of Kunming Machine Tool 2002-2007The Revenue of Kunming Machine Tool Main Business 2004-2007The Revenue of Machine Tool Business of Kunming Machine Tool 2003-2007Comparison of the Gross Profit Among Major Machine Tool CompaniesTable IndexThe Operation of Metal-Cutting Machine Tool IndustryThe Top 10 Output and Value of Output of Metal-Cutting Machine Tool Manufactories 2006The Top 10 Output and Value of Output of NC Metal-Cutting Machine Tool Manufactories 2006Bain Model of Industrial ConcentrationCosts Constitute of HT250 Hot MetalThe Impact of Rising Costs of Cast Iron on the Machine Tool industry’s Cost and Gross ProfitTo order this report:
China Machine Tool Industry Research 2008
http://www.reportlinker.com/p091023/China-Machine-Tool-Industry-Research-2008.html
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Number Plate Recognition Technology
October 13, 2008
Recent advances in Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) technologies have lead to a greater acceptance of the technology by car-park operators. The new digital ANPR technologies present greater read rates than traditional CCTV/PC based technologies and offer far greater flexibility in deployment and customization than previously available. By attaching a unique signature to every vehicle entering and exiting a car park the potential of a car-park management system is greatly enhanced. The signature widely used by vehicle identification technologies is usually the registration number displayed on the front and rear of the vehicle. To robustly read this plate in all weather conditions, day and night and to increase the ability of a system to read dirty plates, Alpha Vision Design has developed a stand alone digital ANPR station that can extract the registration number and automatically present the number for processing. The applications of ANPR technologies can be used for tolling, police enforcement, journey time analysis, average speed violation and access control. Within the car parking domain, most car park operators use ANPR technology as a medium to locate lost vehicles, to calculate occupancy times and to dramatically decrease the revenue loss associated with ticket fraud. ANPR is also finding favour within non-supervised car parks as a means to control access via a white list. This white list contains a list of vehicles with known access rights. Suitable for hotel, apartment and company car parks, this negates the use of disposable paper tickets and wireless FOBs. Companies with large fleets are introducing ANPR as a cost effective method of tracking their vehicles throughout their depots. Large supermarkets and chains are also beginning to utilize the information obtained from their car-parks as a way of highlighting demographic patterns with a view to maximizing profits. For any traffic management system to be a success, the read rate must exceed 99%. Traditionally most operators shied away from ANPR when they discovered that their true read rates were rarely above 60%. In real world applications, this was the limit, not due to poor software but the result of using conventional CCTV systems to obtain the images. CCTV technology is 50 years old and does not lend itself well to computer recognition systems. The common processing core for CCTV based ANPR systems is a PC. CCTV/PC based systems are not robust and are unacceptably high maintenance. To counter this, Alpha Vision Design has developed a self-contained ANPR system designed specifically for the car parking industry. This system includes an integrated illuminator, high resolution digital camera, digital analyser and on-board relays, all contained in one standard security housing. Only mounting and a power cable is required – an industry first! A high resolution camera obtains images that are over sixteen times larger in area size than CCTV images. Combined with a wider field of view, now only one camera is required to capture both the registration plate and an overview of the vehicle, and vehicle placement within a lane is no longer an issue which leads to greater capture rates. The camera /computer unit can in real time adjust the exposure, gain, and the integrated on-board IR lighting to maximise the contrast and readability of the registration plate, including dirty plates, variations in plate reflectivity, strong headlamps and adverse weather conditions. This cannot be done with CCTV/PC based ANPR systems. The setup is easy and is only required once per site, with no re-configuration necessary even after a power outage as the system will reboot automatically. On a typical 800 bay car-park, the system can also store up to five years of data, capturing and time stamping an image of every vehicle entering and exiting the facility. The system is true Plug & Play and can directly control a parking barrier via its on-board database and integrated relays. For configuration, simply use any standard web browser to manage the ANPR station – no third party software is required to manage the entire ANPR network. Our standard systems are shipped in three versions. We have an ANPR station designed for operating at a 10 meter and 25 meter range, and a system for high speed traffic applications. All systems are pre configured and only mounting is required. The ANPR stations can act stand alone or integrate with an existing parking entry ticket/gate system. For remote applications, the ANPR station can also be configured to run over GPRS, TCP/IP and WIFI Networks.
http://www.parkingireland.ie/showart6.htm
Alpha Vision Design
Website: www.ait-traffic.com
Phone+353-1-4640332
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