Brakes on export growth surge
September 5, 2008 · Print This Article
CHINA’S unexpected surging export growth in July may slow down in August with the Olympics coming to an end while industrial production may continue to dip.
“With mandated temporary stoppages of production and construction activities during the Olympic Games, economic data for August, to be released next week, will probably be affected or distorted,” said Wang Qing, an economist with Morgan Stanley.
Wang predicted that trade growth in August will moderate to below 20 percent from a year ago, compared with the 29.8-percent jump in July.
“We believe that the rebound in trade growth in July was partly related to accelerated shipments ahead of the Olympics, and hence we expect to see a noticeable weakness again in August,” said Wang.
China’s industrial production growth, which cooled to an 18-month low of 14.7 percent in July, will probably slip more in August because factories surrounding Olympic host cities were on restricted production from the last week of July.
Retail sales may soften in August because people probably spent more time in front of the television than they did shopping.
Fixed-asset investments, however, may maintain a relatively strong growth because of government policies supporting economic growth and the demand created after the May 12 earthquake.
The Consumer Price Index, a major measure of inflation, will ease to around 5.4 percent in August from 6.3 percent in July due to slower growth of food costs, Wang forecast, in line with other analysts.
The National Bureau of Statistics will announce major economic data from next Wednesday.
“With mandated temporary stoppages of production and construction activities during the Olympic Games, economic data for August, to be released next week, will probably be affected or distorted,” said Wang Qing, an economist with Morgan Stanley.
Wang predicted that trade growth in August will moderate to below 20 percent from a year ago, compared with the 29.8-percent jump in July.
“We believe that the rebound in trade growth in July was partly related to accelerated shipments ahead of the Olympics, and hence we expect to see a noticeable weakness again in August,” said Wang.
China’s industrial production growth, which cooled to an 18-month low of 14.7 percent in July, will probably slip more in August because factories surrounding Olympic host cities were on restricted production from the last week of July.
Retail sales may soften in August because people probably spent more time in front of the television than they did shopping.
Fixed-asset investments, however, may maintain a relatively strong growth because of government policies supporting economic growth and the demand created after the May 12 earthquake.
The Consumer Price Index, a major measure of inflation, will ease to around 5.4 percent in August from 6.3 percent in July due to slower growth of food costs, Wang forecast, in line with other analysts.
The National Bureau of Statistics will announce major economic data from next Wednesday.
Source:China Daily
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